ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – While the region locks down to contain the COVID-19 outbreak and the US consolidates its reduced military presence in the Middle East, the Islamic State (ISIS) has not pared down its activities. In fact, the group’s resurgence seems to be growing.
After two Peshmerga fighters were killed and another wounded in an ISIS attack on Kolajo on Tuesday night, the militants launched another strike on Thursday, killing two Hashd al-Shaabi fighters near al-Sadeq (Haliwa) military airport in Tuz Khurmatu.
On the same evening, ISIS conducted a large scale attack on al-Sokhna town in Syria’s eastern province of Homs, killing 27 regime soldiers and loyalist militiamen, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).
“At least 22 members of the Islamic State group were killed” in retaliatory Russian airstrikes, the report says.
In its weekly al-Nabaa newspaper, published on messaging app Telegram on Thursday, ISIS claimed responsibility for 29 separate attacks in Iraq between April 1 and April 8. It also claimed 11 attacks in Syria over the same period.
ISIS was declared territorially defeated in Iraq in December 2017 and in Syria in March 2019. However, a low intensity insurgency has continued in both countries, exploiting security vacuums between rival forces.
Iraq’s disputed territories, which Erbil and Baghdad have long contested, and some western Sunni-majority regions including Anbar, have seen a recent uptick in insurgent activities, including bombings, ambushes, kidnappings, extortion, and arson.
Concerns have been raised in recent weeks that extremist groups might exploit the chaos created by the coronavirus pandemic to advance on the battlefield. This certainly appears to be the case in West Africa’s Sahel region, where ISIS-affiliated groups have launched catastrophic attacks in recent weeks.
This is despite United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres calling for a global ceasefire to allow cooperation in the fight against COVID-19.
The recent wave of ISIS attacks also comes as the US and the international anti-ISIS coalition draw down and consolidate their missions in Iraq and Syria.
Coalition forces have been in Iraq since 2014 to train and advise Iraqi and Kurdish forces in the fight against ISIS. Over the border, they have also been partnered with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Now the coalition believes ISIS has been degraded to such a point that foreign troops are able to reduce their commitments and hand over control to local forces.
The move also comes in response to the outbreak of coronavirus. Some coalition troops are being redeployed to their home countries to help with the domestic response to the outbreak.
France, Britain, the Czech Republic, and Canada have all fully or partially withdrawn troops.
In the space of a month, the coalition has handed over control of six military bases to the Iraq Security Forces (ISF), including Abu Ghraib near Baghdad, K1 in Kirkuk, al-Qaim near the Syrian border, Qayyarah in western Iraq, al-Sqoor in Mosul, and Al-Taqaddum in Anbar.
The reduced military supervision could present ISIS remnants in Iraq and Syria with a unique opportunity to launch more frequent attacks and expand their influence, particularly in Iraq’s disputed territories.
Jabar Yawar, chief of staff at the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs, says the ISIS resurgence has been underway for some time.
“According to our data, the group increased its activities in 2018 and 2019, especially in Kurdistani areas outside of the Kurdistan Region administration, including Diyala, Hamrin, Kirkuk, Tuz Khurmatu, and Qarachogh. In Qarachogh, they even established bases,” Yawar told Rudaw on Thursday.
A recent Pentagon Inspector General report, covering October 1 to December 31, said ISIS remnants are still active, capable of conducting small-scale attacks, and enjoy freedom of movement in Iraq’s isolated mountains and deserts.
“ISIS maintained both freedom of movement and the ability to hide and transport fighters and materiel in rural areas where [the Iraqi Security Forces] presence is less intense and ISIS can more easily avoid detection and capture,” the Lead Inspector General report said.
“ISIS retains enough manpower and planning capabilities to conduct regular small-scale attacks or ambushes against the ISF, the PMF [Hashd al-Shaabi), or local civilians accused of aiding the ISF or informing on ISIS activities.”